Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription Access


Wolfgang Tysiak


This document shows a possible way how to deal with insecurities in the time schedule of a project plan. It shows that Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), the most popular approach to handle this, bears some severe disadvantages. Furthermore it offers an alternative to overcome them by using Monte Carlo simulation. Finally it can be claimed that a complete change of paradigm is necessary: If you have any insecurities as inputs, everything becomes insecure. This might on the first sight convey the impression that the whole situation converts more complex, but we should rather accept this as the opportunity to apply all the well-known instruments from statistics.


risk management in projects; critical path method; PERT; Monte Carlo simulation.

Full Text:



Project Management Institute (ed.), A guide to the project management body of knowledge, (PMBOK®Guide), PMI, Newtown Square, PA, 2013, 589 p.

H. Schelle, R. Ottmann, A. Pfeiffer, Project Manager, GPM German Association for Project Management, Nürnberg, 2006, 550 p.

H. R. Kerzner, Project Management, John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, New Jersey, 2013, 1296 p.

B. W. Taylor, Introduction to Management Science, Pearson, Prentice Hall, 2010, 833 p.

A. Garlick, Estimating Risk, Aldershot, Gowen, 2007, 260 p.

R. Y. Rubinstein, D.P. Kroese, Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 2008, 372 p.

W. Fazar, Program evaluation and review technique, The American Statistician, (13) 2 (1959), pp. 10-12.

H. Maylor, Project Management, Pearson, Harlow, 2010, 414 p.

W. Tysiak, Risk management in projects: the Monte Carlo approach versus PERT, in Proceedings of the 6thIEEE Conference on Intelligent Data Acquisition and Advanced Computing Systems: Technology and Applications (IDAACS’2011), Prague, Czech Republic (September 15-17, 2011), pp. 906-910.

W. Tysiak, Recent developments in risk management in projects, in Proceedings of the 7thIEEE Conference on Intelligent Data Acquisition and Advanced Computing Systems: Technology and Applications (IDAACS’2013), Berlin, Germany(September12-14,2013), pp. 543-546.

R.F. Engle, Long-term skewness and systemic risk, Journal of Financial Econometrics, (9) 3 (2011), pp. 437–468.

L. Sarigiannidis, P.D. Chatzoglou, Software development project risk management: a conceptual framework, Journal of Software Engineering and Applications, (4) 5 (2011), pp. 293-305.

J. Wang, W. Lin, Y. Huang, A performance-oriented risk management framework for innovative R&D projects, Technovation, (30) 11-12 (2010), pp. 601-611.

D.L. Kimbler, W.G. Ferrell, Combining qualitative and quantitative tools in R&D project planning, Computers and Industrial Engineering, (29) 1-4 (1995), pp. 7-10.


  • There are currently no refbacks.