FRACTAL APPROACH TO ANALYSE THE INSTRUMENTAL TIME SERIES OF TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47839/ijc.14.1.647Keywords:
approach, time-series analysis, land surface air temperature observations, annual warming-cooling cycle, dominant tendency, local abnormality.Abstract
The fractal approach allows to extend the knowledge about the nonlinear dynamics evolution caused by the growth of capacity and adequacy of information about regularities, uncertainties and abnormalities. The paper applies the fractal approach to analyze the instrumental time series observing the air temperature of the land surface during 1902-2012 years. An annual warming-cooling cycle is considered as a unit, so the peculiarities of the viewpoint on the temperature dynamics are connected with the analysis of the time series profiles. The corresponding fractal model – described the annual warming-cooling cycle dynamics - is adapted to the considered subject. Then it becomes possible to study comparatively the averaged, extremely and amplitude-frequency characteristics of the annual warming-cooling cycles. The observations – completed in the forty meteorological stations – are used in the six quasi-homogeneous climate regions. The individual and comparative study of the local climate systems exhibits both over-regional dominant tendencies and local uncertainties that enable to learn the local climate dynamics in more details.References
M. Hoerling, J. W. Hurrell, A. Kumar, L. Terray, J. Eischeid, P. Pegion, T. Zhang, X. Quan and T. Xu, On North American decadal climate for 2011-20’, Journal of Climate, (24) (2011), pp. 4519-4528.
G. J. Boer, V. V. Kharin and W. J. Merryfield, Decadal predictability and forecast skill, Climate Dynamics, (41) (2013), pp. 1817-1833.
Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
J. A. Rial, R.A. Pielke, M. Beniston, M. Claussen, J. Canadell, P. Cox, H. Held, N. de Noblet-Ducoudre, R. Prinn, J. F. Reynolds and J. D. Salas, Nonlinearities, feedbacks and critical thresholds within the Earth’s climate system, Climatic Change, (65) (2004), pp. 1-38.
J. M. Thompson and J. Sieber, Predicting climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a review, International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, (21) 2 (2011), pp. 399-423.
B. Todd, N. Macdonald, R. C. Chiverrell, C. Caminade and J. M. Hooke, Severity, duration and frequency of drought in SE England from 1697 to 2011, Climatic Change, (121) (2013), pp. 673-687.
T. J. Porter, M. F. J. Pisaric, R. D. Field, S. V. Kokelj, Th. W. D. Edwards, P. de Montigny, R. Healy and A. N. LeGrande, Spring-summer temperatures since AD 1780 reconstructed from stable oxygen isotope rations in white spruce tree-rings from the Mackenzie Delta, northwestern Canada, Climate Dynamics, (42) (2014), pp. 771-785.
Zh. Wu, E. K. Schneider, B. P. Kirtman, E. S. Sarachik, N. Huang and C. J. Tucher, The modulated annual cycle: an alternative reference frame for climate anomalies, Climate Dynamics, (31) (2008), pp. 823-841.
B. Christiansen, Changes in temperature records and extremes: Are they statistically significant?, Journal of Climate, (26) (2013), pp. 7863-7875.
X. Chen, Yu. Zhang, M. Zhang, Y. Feng, Zh. Wu, F. Qiao and N. Huang, Intercomparison between observed and simulated variability in global ocean heat content using empirical mode decomposition, part I: modulated annual cycle, Climate Dynamics, (41) (2013), pp. 2797-2815.
J. C. Rogers, The 20th century cooling trend over the southeastern United States, Climate Dynamics, (40) (2013), pp. 341-352.
S. Pezzulli, D. B. Stephenson and A. Hannachi, The variability of seasonality, Journal of Climate, (8) (2005), pp. 71-88.
Yu. Kolokolov and A. Monovskaya, Fractal approach, bifurcation poker and SUC-logic for nonlinear dynamics forecasting, International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, (23) 12 (2013), pp. 1350201.
Yu. Kolokolov and A. Monovskaya, Estimating the uncertainty of the behavior of a PWM power converter by analyzing a set of experimental bifurcation diagrams, International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, (23) 4 (2013), pp. 1350063.
Yu. Kolokolov and A. Monovskaya, From geometric invariants and symbolical matrixes towards new perspectives on forecasting of PWM converter dynamics, Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, (42) 3 (2009), pp. 1868-1877.
Yu. Kolokolov and A. Monovskaya, Computational researches: reasoning on evolution of technical and biological systems, Proceedings of the 7th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Data Acquisition and Advanced Computing Systems: Technology and Applications, 12-14 September, 2013, Berlin, Germany, pp.801-806.
J. Sillmann, V. V. Kharin, F. G. Zwiers and X. Zhang, Climate extreme indices in the CMIP5 multi-model 57 ensemble. Part 2: Future climate projections, Journal of Geophysical Research, (118) (2013), pp. 1-21.
Ch. Essex, Climate theory versus a theory for climate, International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, (21) 12 (2011), pp. 3477-3487.
S. Fatichi, V. Y. Ivanov and E. Caporali, Assestment of a stochastic downscaling methodology in generating an ensemble of hourly future climate time series, Climate Dynamics, (40) (2013), pp. 1841-1861.
L. Menut, O. P. Tripathi, A. Colette, R. Vautard, E. Flaounas and B. Bessagnet, Evaluation of regional climate simulations for air quality modeling purposes, Climate Dynamics, (40) (2013), pp. 2515-2533.
Yu. Kolokolov and A. Monovskaya, Preventive diagnosis of pulse power converter dynamics, Automation and Remote Control, (70) 7 (2009), pp. 1228-1242.
P. Willems, Multidecadal oscillatory behaviour of rainfall extremes in Europe, Climatic Change, (120) (2013), pp. 931-944.
X. Yang, J. A. Rial and E. P. Reischmann, On the bipolar origin of Heinrich events, Geophysical Research Letters, (41) (2014), pp. 9080-9086.
S. Corti, A. Weisheimer, T. N. Palmer, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and L. Magnusson, Reliability of decadal predictions, Geophysical Research Letters, (39) (2012), L21712.
Yu. Kolokolov and A. Monovskaya, From modifications of experimental bifurcation diagrams to operating process stability margin, International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, (23), 7 (2013), pp. 1330024.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
International Journal of Computing is an open access journal. Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:• Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
• Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
• Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.