IMPROVING SUPPORT ESTIMATES BY FUSION OF PRE-ELECTION DATA

Authors

  • Miki Sirola
  • Jaakko Talonen
  • Mika Sulkava

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47839/ijc.15.2.843

Keywords:

election, time series, data fusion.

Abstract

In this paper, Gallup results and a questionnaire in the context of a voting advice application related to the Finnish presidential election are combined. The main emphasis is on preprocessing phases where raw data is reformed to temporal data sets. We also pay attention to find optimized parameters for a merged recursive model. Aggregated data from a questionnaire was stored frequently and modified by a differential equation. The method presented in this paper allows us to visualize more accurately the daily support of each candidate before the election. The results can be used for further research such as forecasting the results and the success of presidential campaigns.

References

F. Hirzalla, L. Van Zoonen, and J. De Ridder, “Internet use and political participation: Reflections on the mobilization/normalization controversy,” The Information Society, vol. 27, issue 1, pp. 1-15, 2010.

A. J. Berinsky, “American public opinion in the 1930s and 1940s,” Public Opinion Quarterly, vol. 70, issue 4, pp. 499-529, 2006.

A. J. Scott and T. M. F. Smith, “Analysis of repeated surveys using time series methods,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 69, issue 347, pp. 674-678, 1974.

A. J. Scott, T. M. F. Smith, and R. G. Jones, “The application of time series methods to the analysis of repeated surveys,” International Statistical Review / Revue Internationale de Statistique, vol. 45, issue 1, pp. 13-28, 1977.

D. B. N. Silva and T. M. F. Smith, “Modelling compositional time series from repeated surveys,” Survey Methodology, vol. 27, issue 2, pp. 205-215, 2001.

D. Steel and C. McLaren, Design and Analysis of Repeated Surveys, Centre for Statistical and Survey Methodology, University of Wollongong, Working Paper 11-08, 2008, 13 p.

J. Talonen, M. Sirola, M. Sulkava, “Data fusion of pre-election Gallups and polls for improved support estimates,” in Proceedings of the 8th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Data Acquisition and Advanced Computing Systems: Technology and Applications IDAACS’2015, Warsaw, Poland, September 24-26, 2015, vol. 1, pp. 845-849.

G. Tsebelis, “Decision making in political systems: veto players in presidentialism, multicameralism and multipartyism,” British Journal of Political Science, vol. 25, issue 3, pp. 289-325, 1995.

R. A. Irvin, J. Stansbury, “Citizen participation in decision making: is it worth the effort,” Public Administration Review, vol. 64, issue 1, pp. 55-65, 2004.

F. Hirzalla, L. van Zoonen, J. de Ridder, “Internet use and political participation: reflections on the mobilization/normalization controversy,” Information Society, vol. 27, issue 1, pp. 1-15, 2011.

A. Graefe, S. J. Armstrong, “Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take-the-best heuristic,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, vol. 25, issue 1, pp. 41-48, 2012.

S. Walgrave, M. Nuytemans, K. Pepermans, “Voting aid applications and the effect of statement selection,” West European Politics, vol. 12, issue 6, pp. 1161-1180, 2009.

S. Walgrave, P. van Aelst, M. Nuytemans, “The electoral effects of a popular vote advice application at the 2004 Belgian elections,” Actapolitica, vol. 43, issue 1, pp. 50-70, 2008.

R. E. Goodin, J. M. Rice, “Waking up in the poll booth,” Perspectives of Politics, vol. 7, issue 4, pp. 901-910, 2009.

R. D. Collings, L. G. Eaton, M. Hendrickson, “A meta-analysis of the 2004 campaign polls: An analogy to practice and publication in psychology,” Psychological Reports, vol. 100, issue 3, pp. 847-856, 2007.

A. J. Berinsky, “American public opinion in the 1930s and 1940s – The analysis of quota-controlled sample survey data,” Public Opinion Quarterly, vol. 70, issue 4, pp. 499-529, 2006.

R. R. Barr, “Populists, outsiders and anti-establishment politics,” Party Politics, vol. 15, issue 1, pp. 29-48, 2009.

A. M. Belchoir, “Explaning left-right party congruence across European party systems – a test of micro-, meso- , and macro-level models,” Comparative Political Studies, vol. 46, issue 3, pp. 352-386, 2012.

O. E. Danzell, “Political parties: when do they turn to terror?” Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 55, issue 1, pp. 85-105, 2010. doi: 10.1177/0022002710381065.

S. Finn, E. Mustafaraj, “Learning to discover political activism in the twitterverse,” Technical Contribution, vol. 27, issue 1, pp. 17-24, 2013.

A. M. Belchoir, A. Freire, “Is party type relevant to an explanation of policy congruence? Catchall versus ideological parties in the Portuguese case,” International Political Science Review, vol. 34, issue 3, pp. 273-288, 2013.

K. Gemensis, “Estimating parties’ policy positions through voting advice applications: some methodological considerations,” Acta Politica, vol. 48, pp. 268-295, 2013.

G. Jiglau, T. Burean, G. Badescu, “The ideological mapping of political parties in Romania. The relationships between dimensions of competition and ideological consistency,” in Proceedings of the ECPR General Conference, Bordeaux, France, 2013.

D. Schwarz, L. Schädel, A. Ladner, “Pre-election positions and voting behavior in parliament: consistency among Swiss MPs,” The Swiss Political Science Review, vol. 16, issue 3, pp. 533-564, 2010. doi: 10.1002/j.1662-6370.2010.tb00440.x.

The elections website of the ministry of justice, [Online]: http://www.vaalit.fi/, retrieved at December 2011.

HS Voting Advice Application, [Online]: www4.vaalikone.fi/presidentti2012, retrieved at February 2015. (in Finnish)

HS blog, [Online]: blogit.hs.fi/hsnext/

helsingin-sanomat-julkaisee-vaalikoneen-tiedo

t-avoimena-rajapintana, retrieved at February 2015. (in Finnish)

Suomen presidentinvaalit 2012, [Online]: fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suomen_presidentinvaali_2012, retrieved at February 2015.

Jari Pajunen, Presidentinvaalitutkimus 2012, [Online]: www.yle.fi/tvuutiset/uutiset/upics/

liitetiedostot/presidenttikyselytaulukot.pdf, retrieved at February 2015. (in Finnish)

Generic ballot provides clues for 2010 vote, [Online]: www.Gallup.com/poll/124010/gene

ric-ballot-provides-clues-2010-vote.aspx, retrieved at February 2015.

Support visualization, [Online]: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kannatus-graafi-1-06-01-2012b.jpg, retrieved at February 2015.

L. Ljung, System Identification Theory for the User, PTR Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ, 1999.

E. Kreyzig, Advanced Engineering Mathematics, John Wiley and Sons, 1993.

I. Volan, Look out for social media “Obama effect” in Finland’s presidential race, [Online]: socialmedianordic.wordpress.com/2012/01/29/look-out-for-social-media-obama-effect-in-finlands-presidential-race, retrieved at February 2015.

Downloads

Published

2016-06-30

How to Cite

Sirola, M., Talonen, J., & Sulkava, M. (2016). IMPROVING SUPPORT ESTIMATES BY FUSION OF PRE-ELECTION DATA. International Journal of Computing, 15(2), 107-118. https://doi.org/10.47839/ijc.15.2.843

Issue

Section

Articles